Telemetry #1: a week of chips, discipline and a result already priced in

The week in one line

Chips started weak on Monday, with rising yields and geopolitical tension, and recovered into Friday. The market treated Micron's very strong results as already priced in.

What the desk did

• TSM: entered Monday at 453.95, after it erased a morning drop against a weak group. Exited Friday at the open on its take profit, at 468.58: +3.2%.
• TER: entered Tuesday on an opening gap and was stopped out the same day: −2.2%. It left us a new rule: no chasing. If the price is already more than 1.5% past the trigger, the entry is skipped.
• NVDA: entered Friday above 235.80. Closed in the afternoon by the weekend flatten: −1.1%.
• Wednesday and Thursday: the desk did not publish a new plan. No entries on those days; stops and take profits stayed active.
• Órbita Horizonte: since Monday, the long-term portfolio of the 6-month and annual plans is live: 11 stocks, built in three weekly tranches.

Everything in Pulso was closed before the weekend, as always.

One thesis: Howmet (HWM)

Howmet makes parts almost nobody sees: turbine blades, fasteners and forged structures for jet engines. Every new engine carries its parts, and every flight hour of the installed fleet generates spares. With aircraft makers behind on deliveries and airlines flying their existing planes harder, both sources of demand grow at once. The risk is that the market already pays a high price for that story. This week it came close to our entry trigger without reaching it.

What's next

• Monday 10/5: SpaceX launches satellites for the Space Development Agency's transport layer, the military network that links sensors and weapons in orbit.
• Friday 10/9: General Dynamics trades ex-dividend (USD 1.59 per share).
• Saturday 10/10: another Starlink launch.
• Further out: TSMC reports on 10/15 and Lockheed Martin has set the date for its results. For both, the rule is the same: no short-term position into the number.